Dallas - Despite a recession, a rash of layoffs and belt-tightening by businesses, labor will remain an issue in the long term for the restaurant industry, said Joni Thomas Doolin, president and founder of People Report™, a human resources research firm.

By 2008 the gap between the number of total jobs available and the people to fill them will exceed 6 million in the United States. And by 2013 labor-force growth is predicted to be zero, Doolin said in October during an annual conference for restaurant companies that are members of People Report™.

The Dallas-based firm tracks retention, hiring and other human resources data on 45 member companies, mainly casual, family and quick-serve restaurants. The chains represent, 100 concepts, 44,000 managers and 656,000 hourly employees.

"We are looking at our labor force to continue to shrink, despite how we are feeling this afternoon," Doolin told about 75 attendees at the daylong conference at the Park Cities Hilton in Dallas.

Baby Boomers are continuing to march toward retirement, and immigration has slowed to a snail's pace after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on America, Doolin said.

"The truth is, we were not fully staffed on Sept. 10," she said. "Now we are like, 'OK, we don't need to hire any more hourly people or managers.' But while we are responding to this extraordinary event, at the same time the population shift of this country has not changed."

The good news for the human resources manager, trainers and recruiters attending the conference was that they can return to their companies and continue to work on recruiting, hiring , retaining and developing good people, Doolin said.

"We're in a tough time, but we're going to get through it," she said. " We need to hang onto the right people, because they will make the difference in the long run.

" People Report™ members generally have turnover rates that are lower than industry averages for hourly workers and managers, and companies expect that trend to continue. While People Report™ tracked an industry -average hourly turnover of 154 percent in 2000, the rate was 132 percent for member companies. Overall, industry-average turnover for managers was 37 percent, but 28 percent for People Report™ members. Management turnover is expected to fall another percentage point this year for People Report™ members.

Companies that offer 401(k) plans, health care and other benefits, such as domestic partner benefits, credit unions, day care and health-care flexible spending, had lower turnover rates than those companies than those companies that didn't. Also, companies that had more racial and gender diversity had lower turnover, as did companies with philanthropic programs.

People Report™ gave its Best Practices Award to three companies that had the best retention of managers and hourly workers as well as the greatest racial and gender diversity of new hires.

Corner Bakery, a Brinker International concept, was given the award for concepts with average unit sales below $2 million and check averages below $9.

Orlando, Fla.-based Red Lobster received the award for restaurants with average unit sales between $2 million and $4 million and check averages between $9 and $15. Red Lobster was a repeat winner, having had the best record in 1998.

Claim Jumper Enterprises Inc., based in Irvine, Calif., won the award for restaurants with average unit sales above $4 million and check averages greater that $15.

"For us it's a total-company initiative," said Bill Story, director of training for Claim Jumper. "Everybody is involved."

From left: Steve Whiddon, Denise Kendrick, Jim Vinz, and Vickie Frisbie,
all from Corner Bakery, received a Best Practices Award on behalf of their company.